You would be forgiven for forgetting there was actually a Grand Final this week. Between Ricky Nixon’s return to Australia, an interview with a 17 year old girl, the soap opera which is Brendon Fevola and Nick Maxwell’s ribs, the hype surrounding this year’s NAB Cup Grand Final has been non-existent. Yes it is only the pre-season competition, but it is also a clash between 2 of the biggest rivals in the AFL with a capacity crowd anticipated for Friday night’s game. Reigning premiers Collingwood face a revived Essendon at Etihad Stadium at 7:45pm this Friday night.
Essendon has been the real story of the pre-season competition, putting in place a new game-plan with a new emphasis on defensive pressure under rookie coach James Hird. In direct contrast, Collingwood has not quite kicked into full gear yet and has rotated key players throughout the NAB Cup. Nonetheless, the Pies have done all that is necessary to beat its lower ranked opponents and should field a side close to full strength in the final.
Essendon has been the real story of the pre-season competition, putting in place a new game-plan with a new emphasis on defensive pressure under rookie coach James Hird. In direct contrast, Collingwood has not quite kicked into full gear yet and has rotated key players throughout the NAB Cup. Nonetheless, the Pies have done all that is necessary to beat its lower ranked opponents and should field a side close to full strength in the final.
Mick Malthouse will re-take control of the side this week after letting his assistants step in as head coach over the past 3 weeks. Malthouse has never won a pre-season competition in his career as a senior coach, so will surely be looking to tick this final conquest off his ‘to do’ list. The media is already building this up as a battle between master and apprentice in the coaching stakes. However, my interest revolves around the fact that both sides are playing a very similar game-plan. James Hird has implemented a very strong forward press and all opponents to date are finding it extremely difficult to clear Essendon’s attacking 50. This is a game-plan that won Collingwood the premiership last year and will be replicated by most teams in 2011. The decisive battle therefore may become which midfield can take control from centre-clearances. In other words, you can’t implement a forward press if you are not getting the ball forward!
The other point of interest for me will be how each side strikes a balance between playing to win the pre-season premiership and keeping the focus on preparations for Round 1. Both sides will be bringing back some big names for their first runs of the year. Didak is expected to play for Collingwood, as is Hille for Essendon. You would expect the game-time of these players to be managed and you would also expect them to be a bit rusty first up which could be an issue in a Grand Final.
Many expert commentators are still sitting on the fence when it comes to predicting Essendon’s fortunes this year. Personally, I think the top 8 is an achievable goal, however you would think they would still fall just short in 2011. If the Bombers are able to knock off Collingwood this Friday night, I may be forced to re-think my prediction.
Essendon are very new to their game-plan, whereas Collingwood has been refining it over a number of years. You would expect the expertise of Collingwood to shine through. However, Essendon is clearly the side who have shown the best form throughout the NAB Cup. Collingwood has been winning in very workmanlike fashion and has looked far from sharp. The Bombers on the other hand are moving the ball with much more freedom and their intensity has been a lot higher. They will strengthen their defence this week with the inclusion of Dustin Fletcher, whereas Collingwood will be without their skipper Nick Maxwell. So the contest is very even in my books at this stage of the year.
A Closer look at the Bombers
Essendon will no doubt be treating this game as a real measure of how much they have improved over the off-season and whether their forward press will stand up against the benchmark of the competition.
As mentioned earlier, the Bombers look set to regain Fletcher and Hille. David Hille’s impact in particular could be telling. There is no doubt that the new substitute rules are going to suit Essendon in 2011 as both their ruckmen are more than capable forwards. This means that they can focus their rotations on midfielders, and rest their rucks up forward. It is a strategy which Collingwood has used so well to date, however the Bombers have a huge advantage when their rucks go up against Leigh Brown who is much shorter. Despite the fact that Essendon has been naming a strong side, they still have a fair injury list. Pears, Danniher, Davey, Welsh and Slattery are all unavailable. Scott Gumbleton has not played the last few matches either. So they still have good players to return to every position on the ground.
The New Game-Plan
There is no doubt that Essendon has taken a lot out of Collingwood’s 2010 game-plan. James Hird wrote an article during the finals series last year analysing the forward press, so it is clear he has been studying it for some time.
Undoubtedly, this strategy works, however it requires a level of intensity that not all sides can maintain. So far, Essendon’s forward pressure has been fantastic. Most importantly, smalls like Jetta, Davey, Monfries, Lonergan and Howlett have been very menacing. You need these tackling smalls in the forward half of the ground to successfully implement the forward press.
A noticeable difference has also been the willingness to kick wide. Last year, Essendon was drilled to run through the middle and try to open the game up. This high risk strategy was exciting to watch, however turnovers were costly. Again, this boundary-hugging game-plan has been a hallmark of the Mick Malthouse style for years now. Although it may not be the most attacking style, it is safe as it does not require pin-point passing. If under pressure, defenders can simply kick wide to a contest and let the ball go over the line whilst the side resets its structures.
The Bombers have also been pushing their half forward flankers high up the ground. This opens up the forward half, but congests the midfield. Again, this makes the game scrappy, however suits a team with good in and unders. Considering Essendon possess one of the best in Jobe Watson, it is a strategy that has been working.
Finally, Hird has reshuffled his side and moved players into different positions. So far it is working. Mark McVeigh has been moved back into the midfield to add toughness. Hurley has settled at Full Forward/CHF. Hardingham has been used as a utility, mostly spending his time down back where his athleticism has been a real highlight. Longergan is another tougher body who has been thrown into the midfield.
Further, Hird has given youngster Dyson Heppell a really good crack during the pre-season, along with mature-aged recruit Michael Hibberd. Both have added something to the side already.
Player Focus:
Leroy Jetta – A much maligned player to date, Jetta is looking the best he ever has and appears totally committed to his football. His career seemingly took a turn towards the end of last year, and he has carried the momentum through under the new coach. Jetta is fit, quick and has terrific skills. He had 13 possessions and 2 goals in the first half last week against St.Kilda and totally lit the game up. His forward pressure in particular was stunning with 5 tackles. Only his accuracy let him down early. Leroy only managed 1 possession in the 2nd half and drifted right out of the game, however he is the sort of player that can change a game in a short period of time so he doesn’t need a lot of possessions to have an influence.
Michael Hibberd – I have already touched on both Heppell and Hibberd, however I’d like to take a moment just to focus on the mature-aged VFL recruit. Considering Pears and Danniher are out, Hibberd has an important role to play across half back. So far, he has been a great link-up player across half back and has pretty good foot-skills. He adds depth to the Bombers backline and will be a popular fantasy footy recruit. Hird has already talked Hibberd up over the off-season and looks set to give him plenty of opportunities. He has done nothing wrong over the pre-season so far, apart from the odd occasion where he has been caught holding the footy.
David Myers – The Bombers faithful have waited a long time for Myers to start delivering on his talent. Reports are that he has had a terrific pre-season and looks set to have a real impact in 2011. James Hird has used him very deep in defence to date, often playing him on dangerous mid-sized forwards (last week he was played on Ryan Gamble). He has then used his run as a real weapon to launch counter attacks. He is still very prone to the odd clanger, however he has really bulked up and looks incredibly fit. He will be a big part of Essendon’s plans in 2011 and it is definitely time he is given consistent game-time. Stewart Crameri – He is a rookie listed player, but has been a real feature for Essendon during the NAB Cup. He is a goal-kicker and has the ability to win plenty of the ball. His work-ethic has been great. He is another who has been applying good forward pressure and is a difficult match-up. You’d expect him to see game-time in 2011 and is one to watch this week in the NAB Cup Grand Final.
David Zaharakis – Zaharakis looks to be one of the younger Bombers midfielders who looks set to really break-out in 2011. He has been kicking goals during the NAB Cup and winning his share of the ball. He just seems to have composure and strikes me as one of those players who will step up on the big stage (as many Magpie fans would remember from ANZAC Day a few years ago). Along with Melksham and Heppell, Zaharakis leads the young brigade of Bombers midfielders coming through.
A Look at Collingwood
The Magpies have cruised through the NAB Cup in 2nd gear, only stepping up the intensity when threatened. It is a slight concern to see a number of players looking quite rusty and it is also worrying to see some sloppy ball movement. Nonetheless, their previous 2 opponents (Sydney and West Coast) played close to full strength line-ups, and played some very solid football. Yet the Magpies had fairly comfortable wins against both opponents. It is always the sign of a good side when they are winning when playing far from their best football.
Nonetheless, Collingwood have to step it up this week against an Essendon side who will try to beat the Magpies at their own game. I expect Malthouse to name his strongest side of the pre-season with guys like Didak, Macaffer, Shaw, Ball, Tarrant, Leigh Brown and Goldsack all expected to return.
Unfortunately, the Pies will be without their skipper Nick Maxwell for around a month after he suffered a rib injury. Brad Dick is also still on the sidelines and Ben Reid hurt his ankle against West Coast last week and is 50/50 to play.
Defensive Woes
When Nathan Brown went down, most Magpies fans were disappointed but took solace into the fact that a seasoned veteran like Chris Tarrant would slot straight into the role. However, Nick Maxwell will also miss the start of the season for Collingwood, and Tyson Goldsack is far from fully fit after suffering Glandular Fever. The Magpies may be without Ben Reid this week as well.
Malthouse has a few options to cover Maxwell and Nathan Brown. His first option is to throw Goldsack straight to the wolves and use him as a like-for-like replacement for Maxwell. Then Tarrant would cover Nathan Brown. The big risk here is that Goldsack is not fully ready, and Tarrant is a very different defender to Nathan Brown in the sense he is shorter but more versatile.
The other option is to back in young Lachlan Keefe who stands at 204cm to fill in for Nathan Brown, whilst Tarrant goes into a more flexible floating defender role.
The final option is to throw Leigh Brown back into defence. I doubt Malthouse would be considering this option.
No doubt Collingwood’s depth will be tested early. However, Malthouse has a good list to work with and plenty of cover, yet 1 more injury down back may throw a real spanner in the works. Ben Reid becomes very important at Centre Half Back.
Player Focus:
Jarryd Blair – It’s a big year for Blair. He was the story of 2011, been the only player for Collingwood to debut and to hold his spot in the side right through the finals series. However, he is also the sort of player that remains right on the fringe of the top 22, especially considering the impressive early season form of Davis and Krakouer. Nonetheless, his pre-season has been terrific. Reports are that he has even gained a yard or 2 of pace, his footskills have improved and he is ultimately determined to hold his spot in the side. He looked terrific against West Coast and was even given a tagging job on Priddis around stoppages. This adds another string to his bow. Blair really looks like he is ready to step into the midfield and dominate.
John McCarthy – Jmac faces a crunch year. He has been on the list long enough now but has suffered a number of injuries in the last 2 years. McCarthy is a favourite of Malthouse, and no doubt the club holds high hopes for him. However, he has always failed to impress me at senior level. He looked really good last week against West Coast and was mostly sharp with his disposal. His greatest weakness is still in front of goal (he kicked 2 gettable behinds last week). Unfortunately, McCarthy has to start making these opportunities count in front of goal as he is likely to be used as a half forward flanker. Nevertheless, he showed promising signs last week and the Collingwood side will be strengthened if guys like McCarthy are in good form and putting pressure on for spots.
Alan Toovey – Generally, I have been unimpressed with a number of Collingwood premiership players to date. They look a tad rusty and look to be a bit off their best (not that it is a massive concern at this time of the year). Toovey however has not missed a beat. He looks as sharp (if not sharper) as he did in the finals last year and he continues to improve as a player. He is another who will have to step up with Brown and Maxwell. I never thought I would be saying this, but Toovey is quickly becoming one of the most effective back pockets in the competition. Scott Pendlebury – Was clearly the B.O.G last week by so far it was not funny. Whilst all other players struggled to hit targets and make effective decisions under pressure, Pendlebury cruised around as if time stopped whenever he was around the ball. He looked a class above everyone. The talk about GWS does not seem to be fazing him, and he is probably on the verge of over-taking Swan as Collingwood’s best midfielder. Pendlebury always plays well against Essendon and should relish the contest on Friday night. All he has to do now is get rid of the dreadlocks.
The Wrap-Up
To be honest, I have a funny feeling about Essendon this week. They probably want it a bit more at this stage of the year and I’m not 100% sure Collingwood is ready for a high intensity game. Nonetheless, whether the Bombers are able to implement a forward press against the masters of it will be the biggest question to be answered on Friday night.
Collingwood will rightfully go in as favourites and should be a bit too strong across the board. Again, the start will be very important as the Magpies will look to blow Essendon away early. If the Bombers can hold on to the early onslaught, then their confidence will improve. On the other hand, Essendon have been terrific starters so far this NAB Cup. So expect a fiery start.
It is true that pre-season form counts for little, but Geelong
45,000 should stream through the gates and the atmosphere should be great. See you all there.
Magpies by 11
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
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